21 January 2026 In 2018, the American think tank Atlantic Council published a report, which leaves the United States vulnerable to a dangerous form of Russian escalation in space, including the probability of a nuclear explosion, which can disable satellites and disrupt daily life on Earth. The report states, that "its capabilities and current military doctrine indicate a high probability that Russia will consider a nuclear and counter-commercial attack in space against American, allied or commercial space assets”.
In the report entitled "Countering Russian escalation in space” it is emphasized that, that Washington and its allies are not sufficiently prepared for the risk of purposeful escalation of the conflict on the part of Moscow outside the Earth's atmosphere. Such actions can range from a nuclear explosion in orbit to destructive anti-satellite attacks or sustained interference with commercial satellite services, which support modern military operations, global communications and economic activity.
The authors of the report claim, that current US space policy, procurement practices and reliance on commercial suppliers alone are insufficient to deter or sustain such scenarios. The key problem, according to analysts, lies in the differences in thinking between Western governments and Russian leaders about deterrence and escalation.
The report highlights three dangerous scenarios of possible actions by the aggressor country:
- A nuclear explosion in low Earth orbit, where many military personnel work, commercial and civil satellites. American officials warned, that such an event could render large areas of the orbit unusable for months and paralyze such services, as a missile warning, communication, navigation and weather forecasting.
- Attacks, that create space debris. IN 2021 Russia demonstrated this ability last year, destroying one of its satellites in orbit, resulting in the creation of thousands of pieces of debris, which posed a threat to other spacecraft and forced astronauts
to hide on the International Space Station. - Systematic interference in commercial space systems (including communications, images and navigation), which the United States and its allies increasingly rely on for military operations.
These risks, according to analysts, reveal the limits of containment strategies, which rely primarily on threats of punishment or the imposition of costs. Moscow's approach to deterrence places greater emphasis on demonstrating a willingness to escalate and inflict "unacceptable damage", even at the cost of their losses. Considering the above, the authors of the report believe, that the United States should focus on approach, which they call “deterrence by denial of benefit”. It consists in the super-efficient construction of space systems, thanks to which the attack will not be able to significantly impair the capabilities of the United States and its allies. The approach involves deploying a large number of satellites in different orbits, strengthening spacecraft to survive radiation from a nuclear explosion, and ensuring the ability to quickly replace or restore systems in the event of damage.
Analysts of the Atlantic Council emphasize the high degree of threat and the urgent need to take measures, referring to General Saltzman, chief of operations of the US Space Force, who called the potential deployment of Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons "Day Zero". This means, that "from that day on, no one will be able to count on space".
Simultaneously, analysts call for a clearer declarative policy of the US on escalation in space, deeper integration of commercial providers into national security planning, as well as closer coordination with allies to complicate decision-making by Russia.
The report also talks about asymmetry in space warfare. Even a limited set of such counterspace tools, like mufflers, cyber attacks or direct anti-satellite missiles, could create obstacles in receiving services, which the United States relies on during military operations, in economic activity and civil infrastructure. This imbalance makes space a particularly attractive pressure point for an opponent, which faces conventional disadvantages on Earth.
Source: https://spacenews.com