NASA announced, that an asteroid with a diameter of about 60 meters now has a slightly higher chance of hitting the moon.
According to the most recent data collected, NASA's Near-Earth Object Research Center at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has clarified the asteroid's expected course 2024 YR4 and increased its probability of collision with the Moon 22 December 2032 year on 4,3%.
The initial probability was 3,8%.
The asteroid is too far out in space, so that it can be detected by ground-based telescopes, but the James Webb Space Telescope, which revolves around the Sun, was able to take a fresh look at it earlier this month, before he was out of sight. It was this opportunity that provided the data, which led to a change in the forecast.
Because of YR4's solar orbit, NASA will not be able to see it again, until it goes back around the Sun in 2028 year.
According to a research paper, submitted to the American Astronomical Society, if an asteroid collides with the moon, this can cause a crater of approx 3200 ft. and release 6,5 megaton of energy.
As a result of such a collision, up to 220 million pounds of lunar material, and then to 10% of this emission may reach the Earth in a few days.
However, any fragments of the Moon, which approach the Earth, can also increase the impact of meteoroids, faced by satellites in Earth orbit for a whole decade.
Source: https://www.spacedaily.com