Research, представлене 8 April at the 5th IAA Conference on Situational Awareness in Space in Madrid by COMSPOC, showed, that most satellite operators eliminate only 7% potential collision risk based on the current accuracy of SSA data and those thresholds, which they use to define, when a potential rapprochement calls for action.
This analysis is based on modeling objects in orbit with their size estimates from various databases. Assessment in 7% uses current SSA data accuracy and threshold 1 to 10 000 for collision probability, at which operators perform maneuvers - this threshold is used by many operators.
One solution is to make the threshold tougher. Crossing the threshold 1 to 1 000 000 will allow to eliminate 75% risk. However, this can greatly increase the number of potential convergences, which operators have to deal with, so only some of them, in particular SpaceX, use such a threshold.
Another approach is to improve the accuracy of SSA data. Improving data accuracy in 10 times will allow to eliminate approx 75% risk even if the current threshold is maintained 1 to 10 000.
Using a threshold 1 to 1 000 000 together with improved SSA data will reduce the residual collision risk to 8%.
Common operators, looks like, eliminate only 7% collision risk, using a relatively soft threshold 1 to 10 000. If you apply a tougher threshold and ten times better accuracy, it will be possible to solve most of the collision risk problem. This has already been partially demonstrated by SpaceX's work with Starlink satellites: the company uses a threshold close to 1 to 1 000 000 and has much better data on the position of its satellites, than the standard accuracy of SSA.
A good plan to improve SSA accuracy involves collaboration between companies, specializing in SSA data, with government agencies and spacecraft operators. This will involve merging data from different sources, exchange of information on satellite maneuvers and space weather data.
Source: https://spacenews.com