The cost of launching a payload into low Earth orbit (NGO) really fell by about 95–96% - from over $50 000 per kilogram at the time of the Apollo program and space shuttles to approx $1 500–2 700 per kilogram thanks to Falcon rockets 9 and SpaceX's Falcon Heavy.
According to the estimates of aerospace engineers and analysts, in the coming years, this cost may drop by another 90–95% from the current level, having reached the psychological mark of $10–100 per kilogram.
Below are the factors, which define this limit, and technological barriers, which will not allow the value to fall to zero.
Full and fast reusability: Falcon Missiles 9 are only partially reusable (the first stage and fairings are saved). New heavy duty systems, such as SpaceX Starship or Blue Origin's New Glenn, are developed as fully reusable. When both degrees return to Earth, start-up costs will consist almost exclusively of fuel and maintenance costs.
The speed of preparation for a new start: Modern rockets require weeks or months of maintenance between flights. The goal of engineers – reach the "airplane" mode of operation, when the rocket can be refueled and launched again in hours or days. This will make it possible to spread capital costs over thousands of flights.
Economies of scale and cheap materials: Replacing expensive carbon fiber or titanium with stainless steel (as in Starship) drastically reduces the production cost of the missile body itself.
Even if the rocket becomes absolutely free to manufacture and fly forever, the startup cost will never fall below the sum of the three factors:
The cost of fuel (chemical limit): Hundreds of tons of liquid oxygen are needed to remove a ton of cargo, methane, kerosene or hydrogen. Today, the cost of fuel for one heavy launch is from $500 000 to $1 000 000. This sets the "absolute floor" for classical rockets at around $10-20 per kilogram.
Depreciation and licenses: Insurance of space missions, licensing by regulators (example, FAA in the USA) and renting airspace costs a lot of money.
Spaceport support: Operation of launch complexes, gas stations, safety systems and flight path commands requires constant infrastructure costs.
Startup cost comparison chart (for 1 kg of NGOs)
|
Era / Rocket |
Approximate cost for 1 Kg |
Status / Feature |
|
Saturn V (1960-those) |
$185 000 (taking into account inflation) |
Disposable, experimental |
|
Space Shuttle (1980–2010) |
$54 000–$60 000 |
Partially reusable, expensive repair |
|
Falcon 9 (Current stage) |
$1 500–$2 500 |
Multiple 1st degree |
|
Starship (Forecast for the coming years) |
$100–$200 |
Complete reusability |
|
Theoretical limit (After 2035) |
$10–$50 |
Only the cost of fuel and logistics |
If humanity wants to overcome the threshold of $10 per kilogram, will have to abandon chemical missiles in favor of non-rocket launch methods – example, space elevator or orbital kinetic rings (Launch Loop), however, these technologies remain concepts of the distant future.
Source: https://www.space.com