In case of inactivity on the part of European countries, dominance in outer space may be taken over by China, Russia and private American companies, in particular SpaceX. NATO representatives emphasize, that without a full-fledged space strategy it is impossible to talk about European sovereignty.
USA, from my side, expect greater independence from European allies in strategic directions, including in space. For Europe, this could be a chance to review its policy and strengthen its position.
Russia's war against Ukraine clearly demonstrated the importance of space technology for military operations: they play a key role in communications, navigation and intelligence. However, it became clear, that European defense capability is heavily dependent on a limited number of American companies – mostly SpaceX. The EU's own IRIS² satellite system, which should ensure greater autonomy, will not be ready before 2030 year.
At the same time, space is increasingly turning into a potential battlefield. In NATO, the increasing activity of China and Russia is noted, which, probably, are developing new types of weapons for space use, including orbital bombs and means to disable or jam satellites. There are also concerns about the possible placement of nuclear weapons in orbit.
In this regard, the Alliance needs better monitoring and analysis of the situation in space, as well as the ability to quickly respond to threats. The US Space Command has already recognized space as a "highly competitive strategic environment", where those will be able to gain an advantage, who will be able to combine state and commercial resources.
Challenges for European business
The militarization of space leads to a change in the technological and economic architecture of the industry. European companies are currently focused on building large geostationary satellites. However, new realities require diversification: it is necessary to develop cheaper and more mobile constellations of low-orbit satellites. Such satellites cost ten times less and provide flexibility in deployment and replacement.
Despite the strong position in the traditional segment thanks to such companies, as ArianeGroup, Europe is seriously lagging behind in the New Space segment - the market for young companies, introducing innovative models. This sector is currently practically monopolized by SpaceX, which made a breakthrough thanks to reusable missiles and low launch costs.
European startups are failing so far. So, the first attempt to launch the Spectrum rocket of the German Isar Aerospace ended in an explosion less than a minute after launch. Other companies are forced to use the services of American operators, in particular SpaceX.
One of the possible solutions to overcome the backlog could be the adoption of the European Defense Act, which would involve financial, tax and regulatory incentives to develop dual (civil and military) technologies. The goal is to support European innovators and strengthen our own technological base.
It is also proposed to create a European analogue of the American joint commercial operations space market - a platform for rapid military access to commercial technologies, in particular in the field of intelligence and spatial monitoring.
The role of NATO: from observation to action
NATO is already intensifying its presence in space. The alliance forms tools for spatial awareness, which will allow to better see and analyze the situation in orbit, and coordinate collective action. This approach will increase the political weight of the reaction, as the Alliance's response is more important, than the actions of an individual state.
The key space players in NATO remain the USA, France, Great Britain, Italy, Norway, Canada and Germany. But, despite the recognition of space as a separate operational sphere even in 2019 year, the renewed defense objectives of the Alliance still do not fully take this area into account.
Expected, that in the coming years the member states will either share the necessary functions among themselves, or will outsource part of the needs to NATO. The model of joint ownership of satellite systems is also considered.
At the NATO summit in The Hague in June, attention is expected to focus on financial issues - in particular on the US proposal to increase defense spending by 5% GDP. The question of space, most likely, will remain in the background, although its strategic importance will only grow.